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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.