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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

Yet the latest race is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still